On Wednesday 11 June 2025, from 15:00 to 16:00, the Department of Economics, Business, Mathematics and Statistics - DEAMS of the University of Trieste hosts the seminar "From Simple Models to Real-World Complexity. Understanding What Happens After a Shock When the Economy Doesn't Follow a Straight Line".

The meeting will take place in Lecture Hall 3_B of Building D on the Piazzale Europa Campus.

The event, organised by the Department of Economics, Business, Mathematics and Statistics - DEAMS and promoted by Marco Giansoldati, Associate Professor of Economic Policy at the University of Trieste, will be attended by Elena Pesavento, Full Professor of Economics at the Department of Economics, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.

The seminar will focus on a topic that is particularly useful for understanding the impacts of shocks. Indeed, linear vector autoregressive models have been widely used to estimate the responses of economic variables to shocks such as monetary policy or oil price shocks (impulse response functions). Recently, there has been considerable interest in estimating models that take non-linearities into account. Examples include models that allow for different responses to positive and negative shocks (in terms of sign), different responses to small and large shocks (in terms of size) and different responses depending on the state of the economy (expansion or recession). The addition of non-linearity to VARs adds a level of complexity that is important to take into account when estimating impulse response functions (IRFs).

In the seminar, prof. Elena Pesavento will discuss the general challenges arising from the estimation of impulse response functions (IRFs) in non-linear models, provide some suggestions and practical examples.

The meeting is open to the entire student community and the teaching staff of the University, with the aim of stimulating critical reflection on the most efficient methodology for estimating the impacts of shocks on economic systems.